Thailand: Egat faces 'tri-lemma' over future needs

Thailand: Egat faces 'tri-lemma' over future needs

THE ELECTRICITY Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) faces triple
challenges in meeting the country's energy demand towards 2036, according to
its deputy governor, Saharat Boonpotipukdee.

"It's a so-called 'tri-lemma' as we try to balance energy security,
competitive pricing, and environmental requirements," he said.

According to the Power Development Plan (PDP) for 2015-2036, Egat aims for
coal-fired power plants to account for 23 per cent of the country's total
power-generation capacity, up from the current 18 per cent.

However, one of Egat's coal-plant projects in the southern province of Krabi
has been facing opposition from non-government organisations that claim the
scheme will have negative impacts on the environment and the tourism and
fisheries sectors, as well as on residents' way of life.

Citing Japan's Matsuura coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of
2,000 megawatts in Nagasaki prefecture as an example, Saharat said the
Japanese experience was rather positive.

The city of Matsuura where the plants are situated is now a crucial base for
both fisheries and electricity generation because the current technology for
coal-fired plants is now much better than previous-generation technology.

Besides coal-fired power plants, Egat has also focused on renewable energy
sources, which is to account for 25 per cent of the country's total capacity
in 2036, a big increase from the current 8 per cent.

This will reduce dependence on natural-gas-fired power plants to 50 per cent
of the total, down from the current 60-70 per cent.

"In other words, we've been over-relying on natural gas for power
generation, which is not good in terms of energy security and electricity
tariffs, since natural gas is more expensive than other energy sources,"
Saharat said.

"At present, we mainly use gas from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar's
fields, whose output will not increase, so more gas will have to be imported
in the form of LNG, whose price is double that of indigenous sources.

"This imbalance of the energy mix for power generation is a big challenge,
so we need more coal-fired plants, especially those planned for Tepa in
Songkhla and Krabi provinces, which will use ultra-super-critical technology
comparable to that currently used in Japan's Matsuura plants.

"In fact, the coal-fired plants planned for Thailand will also be equipped
with a mercury-removal feature that is not yet available at the Japanese
plants."

According to Egat, Japan is a good case study for Thailand in terms of
diversifying sources to achieve a more balanced energy mix. In the wake of
the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan was forced to increase the
proportion of coal-fired power generation to 30 per cent of the total
capacity from the previous 25 per cent because of the shutdown of nuclear
power plants.

However, Japanese authorities are pondering the reopening of some nuclear
plants, which are still regarded as a cheap source of renewable energy.

Despite the Fukushima disaster, it is believed that nuclear power should be
used after resolving the safety issue. In the case of Fukushima, the
disaster resulted from the use of old technology that was unsuitable for
Japan, Egat says.

In fact, the oldest nuclear plant of the Fukushima complex, called Unit 1,
which melted down in 2011, was built some 30 years ago using US technology
originally designed for coping with the consequences of natural disasters
common in the United States, such as tornadoes.

As a result, Unit 1's secondary safety system was built at a low ground
level to avoid the powerful windstorm effects of tornadoes.

However, what hit Unit 1 in 2011 were a tsunami and earthquakes of 8.9
magnitude, which effectively disabled its crucial secondary safety system,
resulting in the meltdown of its radioactive cores.

On the other hand, another plant, called Unit 4, of the Fukushima complex,
which was built much later and used newer technology - third-generation
instead of Unit 1's first-generation technology - was not badly damaged in
2011.

The reason: its secondary safety system was built at a much higher level
above ground so it was not directly hit by the powerful tsunami, allowing
the system to maintain the power plant's integrity.

For Thailand, the 2015-2036 PDP still includes construction of two nuclear
power plants with a combined capacity of 2,000MW towards the end of the
20-year programme.

Meanwhile, Vietnam has delayed its 2,000MW nuclear-plant project using
Russian technology until 2027 over funding issues.

Takahiko Nagasaki, chief of the business development group at Japan's Kyushu
Electric Power Co, said Japan had focused on efficient technology, multiple
renewable energy sources and nuclear power to address its long-term energy
needs in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

In his opinion, nuclear power is cheap and environmentally friendly because
of the lack of emissions, so it can be reinstated once the safety issue is
resolved.

For Thailand, renewable energy sources that have good potential include
solar, wind and biomass, among others. As a result, Egat also plans to
invest in solar-energy farms as well as biomass power plants to diversify
the fuel sources for power generation to manage the triple challenges in
meeting the country's energy demands.

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John Diecker
APT Consulting Group Co., Ltd.

www.aptthailand.com