Burma's Electricity Demand Predicted to Nearly Double By 2020

Burma's Electricity Demand Predicted to Nearly Double By 2020

Demand for electricity consumption in Burma could double over the next four
years, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and government officials have
predicted.

Electricity consumption throughout Burma is limited to 2,500 megawatts per
day, while total production is 4,500 megawatts from both hydropower and
thermal power production. The commercial capital of Rangoon accounts for
more than half of the country's total consumption.

"There are high and low electricity demand forecasts for Myanmar in 2020.
The high case would be if it reached 4,531 megawatts, while the low case
could be if it reached 3,862 megawatts per day for the whole country," Bui
Duy Thanh, the ADB's senior energy economist told the Irrawaddy on Thursday
at the 4th Myanmar Power Summit in Rangoon.

In the ADB's 20-year forecast, demand for electricity in Burma could reach
14,542 megawatts per day by 2030, or it could cap at 9,100 megawatts.

"The Ministry of Energy is responsible for working to meet these demands in
the forecasted years, but actually we don't know if the ministry can meet
them or not," Bui Duy Thanh said.

There are many limitations in transmitting electric power to consumers in
Burma. National grid lines, for example, are old and infrastructure is
lacking.

"The Ministry will have to look at system reform," he said, taking the
position that more private sector involvement is needed in order to meet the
forecasted demands. The ADB estimates that US$27 to 30 billion is required
for generating electricity, $6 to 10 billion for strengthening the
transmission and distribution network, and $6 to 7 billion for
electrification in rural areas.

U Yan Lin, chief engineer of the Yangon Electricity Supply Corporation, told
The Irrawaddy that the increasing demand could be met if the electricity
production rate increases through new generating sources-not only hydropower
and thermal power.

"The consumption rate is increasing at least 15 percent each year, so if we
can produce more power through new sources, it can be met," he said of the
demands.

U Yan Lin pointed out that Burma's biggest hydropower project, the Yeywa dam
in Mandalay Division, produces less than 800 megawatts of electricity per
day.

He also feels that the current production capacity of 4,500 megawatts per
day will be insufficient once more foreign direct investment comes to the
country.

"Most questions that foreign investors are asking us are related to whether
we can supply power or not, but we can't still guarantee this so far," U Yan
Lin explained.

In Burma, an estimated 70 percent of electricity is produced through
hydropower, while thermal power plants make up much of the remainder.

Turkey's Karpower is planning to sail a power barge to Burma in April
capable of producing 300 megawatts of electricity per day through the use of
natural gas and residual fuel oil.

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Link to Original Article:
http://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/burmas-electricity-demand-predicted-to-n
early-double-by-2020.html

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John Diecker
APT Consulting Group Co., Ltd.

www.aptthailand.com