Myanmar: NLD needs to rethink Salween dams (Opinion)

Myanmar: NLD needs to rethink Salween dams (Opinion)

Myanmar's governing National League for Democracy (NLD) is focused on the
Myitsone dam project. Yet attention also needs to be paid to the Salween
dams which are an unfair deal for Myanmar.

In July 1997, exactly 20 years ago, the heads of Thailand's and Myanmar's
government sat down to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with
far-reaching implications for Myanmar. This MoU outlined the construction of
seven dams to be built on the Salween River. These projects were supposed to
feature a total capacity of 22,000 megawatts (MW) -- 55% of Myanmar's total
hydroelectric potential and almost five times the total capacity installed
today.

Many in Myanmar are awaiting a decision by the NLD government on the
controversial 6,000MW Myitsone dam, which will flood a vast area of 450
square kilometres in Kachin State. But the projects on the Salween Dams
deserve just as much attention.

Most are "battery dams" -- dams with significant electricity exports abroad,
four with exports to Thailand, two to China. For instance, 90% of the
electricity of the 7,000MW Mong Ton dam in Shan state would be exported to
Thailand. This project would thus send more hydropower across national
borders than any other project in Southeast Asia.

Electricity exports can generate significant revenue for a government.
Bhutan generates 40% of its total governmental revenue from the sale of
hydroelectric power to India. This revenue, in turn, can be used to
accelerate a country's development, such as via investing in the country's
roads, schools or healthcare system. But contracts that govern the export of
electricity need to be carefully negotiated to ensure that the projects are
beneficial for the country the dam is built in and for the populations most
affected by their construction.

The information available regarding the Salween dams suggests that this is
an unfair deal for Myanmar and its people. For instance, Myanmar's
government would receive electricity worth US$207 million (6.89 billion
baht) from the Mong Ton dam annually, according to a study from Harvard
University. But it could obtain up to four times more if contractual terms
matched those of comparable projects in Nepal and Laos. The people of
Myanmar are being ripped off by the Mong Ton dam project.

Little information has been released regarding the contractual agreements of
the Salween dams beyond the Mong Ton dam so far, although the NLD government
promised that it would be transparent. Confidential interviews with
decision-makers in Myanmar's Ministry of Electric Power (MoEP) suggest that
the contractual benefits of these remaining projects are also meagre. The
renegotiation of these contracts is thus mandatory.

Once renegotiation of the Salween dam contracts has started, not only
policymakers from Nay Pyi Taw, but also representatives from the affected
local populations need to sit at the table.

The existing contracts largely ignore them. These will help ensure that
project-affected communities are the project's first beneficiaries and that
the largest share of benefits from these projects goes to affected local
communities instead of the national government. This would be fair since
these projects harm their territory and livelihoods.

The benefits must not only be financial, but also include significant
amounts of electricity. The renegotiated contracts need to make clear that
Myanmar will only export electricity abroad if its domestic demand is fully
met. While the electricity of the Salween dams will not be needed in Myanmar
immediately (or six to eight years from now -- this is how long the
construction of many of these dams will take), this may change in 15 or 20
years if Myanmar's economy continues to grow at its current pace. The
Salween dams are what we call "Damocles projects". This term reflects the
constant threat that hangs over the villagers in the communities close to
the Salween dams: the fear of resettlement.

Our research elsewhere has showcased that such Damocles projects create
tangible negative impacts on communities. For instance, communities invest
much less due to the fear of being resettled soon, while stress levels are
particularly high. Planners must agree to reimburse communities for any
negative planning phase impacts that occurred as part of the renegotiation.

This implies that thorough environmental and social impact assessments
(ESIAs) are carried out for each of the seven Salween dams. Moreover, a
Strategic Environmental Assessment that considers the projects' impacts from
a river basin perspective is sorely needed. Several of the projects may be
scrapped based on the results of these assessments if it becomes clear that
their environmental, social and cultural impacts are too grave.

Admittedly, the suggested renegotiation will take a lot time. But this time
investment is needed to ensure that the people of Myanmar get a fair deal
out of these projects. Projects pursued on the Salween River must not only
attract investors and please Myanmar's neighbours. Instead, these projects
must, first and foremost, benefit the people of Myanmar.

Contracts are often renegotiated when circumstances change, as they have
significantly in Myanmar over the past 20 years. Developing Myanmar's vast
hydropower resources can be an opportunity for the country's development.
But this opportunity is currently not reaped via the Salween dams. A
renegotiation of these projects is overdue and the 20th birthday of these
projects may be an ideal point in time to start it.

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Link to Original Article:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1299059/nld-needs-to-rethink-salw
een-dams

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John Diecker
APT Consulting Group Co., Ltd.

www.aptthailand.com