Philippines: Luzon grid on 'yellow alerts' until June

Philippines: Luzon grid on 'yellow alerts' until June

Luzon grid will recurrently be in misery of "yellow alert conditions" or
insufficient power reserves and even brownout threats from April until June,
according to the modified power supply-demand outlook issued by system
operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) after several
power plants keeled over following the earthquake scourge in Batangas.

For the Filipinos, that entails double whammy of "endless wobbly electricity
service or critically tight power supply" the rest of summer and highly
probable spikes in their electric bills.

According to NGCP's forecast, power supply will be precarious from April and
will just start to ease after June 3 and towards the remaining weeks of this
year's first half.

Notably, that is a complete reverse of an earlier assurance that supply
during the months of scorching weather would on the "sufficiently safe zone"
- turning then as a "make-or-break spell" for those in charge of planning
and assessing the country's power supply-demand outlook.

So far, this year's running peak demand had been recorded at 9,459 megawatts
last March 24, but the projected peak is still anticipated to occur on the
week of May 27 to June 02 at 9,870MW - that is also the period when
available capacity creeps into razor-thin proportion.

It is likewise apparent in the NGCP data that Luzon grid will only be able
to "avoid red alert" or rotating brownouts on these periods because the
government will be running the 650-megawatt Malaya thermal power plant.

Nevertheless, state-run Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management
Corporation (PSALM) has to make known how long the Malaya plant could
really last if it is being razed to the ground in supplying the grid - that
is in terms of its technical capacity and also based on fuel inventory.

This protracted predicament of Luzon grid yellow alerts would be triggered
by a combination of the simultaneous scheduled maintenance shutdown of power
plants, the inoperability of a number of generating facilities after the
earthquake; and extended forced outages of the other plants.

From April 3 until June 25, at least 13 power generating facilities would
still be on scheduled downtime; while some plants taken out from the system
post the Batangas disaster have yet to give timeframe on their
re-synchronization to the grid.

Another impact of this power sector muddle that is difficult to explain to
the public would be on consequent rate hikes - especially on these months
when consumption would be peaking in many households because of the
blistering weather.

Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi has given word that they are currently
discussing with the operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM)
as well as with the other industry players on "mitigating measures
pertaining to spikes in the price of power."

While the government has its hands tied on such appalling condition, the
energy chief at this time can only appeal to consumers "to use power wisely
to help stabilize energy demand particularly during the summer season."

Meanwhile, post-Holy Week power supply may finally improve with the
anticipated synchronization of the 600-megawatt Ilijan Block B gas-fired
power generating unit as targeted morning today (April17)

That has been the assurance given by plant operator Korea Electric Power
Company (KEPCO) to the Department of Energy (DOE), as the latter calls on
the immediate restoration of the earthquake-hit power facilities.

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Link to Original Article:
http://business.mb.com.ph/2017/04/16/luzon-grid-on-yellow-alerts-until-june/

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John Diecker
APT Consulting Group Co., Ltd.

www.aptthailand.com