Malaysia's first nuclear unit in 2021 is no longer possible

Malaysia's first nuclear unit in 2021 is no longer possible

In January of 2011, two months before the paradigm-shifting Fukushima
incident, Malaysia, ASEAN's third richest nation, and third largest economy,
took the bold step in the "go nuclear" route to establish its state-backed
nuclear energy organisation, NEPIO (Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing
Organisation. Dr Zamzam Jaafar, one of the nation's leading energy experts,
who already boasted a greater than three decade career at the Tenaga
Nasional Berhad (the national power utility), was asked to take the reigns
as NEPIO's CEO. He was the obvious choice. Holding a PhD in nuclear
engineering, Zamzam helmed the nuclear unit of the Malaysian power supplier
long before NEPIO was conceived.

Everything was ahead of the fledgling organisation, including the problems
that were about arrive, albeit vicariously, due to Fukushima. But NEPIO and
Dr Zamzam have steered a steady course and Malaysia's nuclear energy
industry is prevailing. In his sixth year as CEO, Zamzam describes the
Malaysian government's commitment to its nuclear programme as "a long-haul
assignment. but we have been working with the IAEA since we started, and
before that too when I was head of the nuclear energy unit at Tenaga
Nasional."

Next big move

Zamzam labels both Vietnam and Bangladesh as the next movers and shakers in
the Asian nuclear industry, with Bangladesh, interestingly, leading the way.
Although if one considers Bangladesh in context, it is an obvious contender
to go nuclear sooner rather than later, a massive, swelling, power hungry
population inhabiting a relatively small land area, an under-developed
economy but one which enjoys relatively stable government and has a
middle-class on the precipice of exploding in size. "Last December
Bangladesh signed a government-to-government contract with Russia, and the
Bangladeshi nuclear authority issued a construction licence for 2017. I
think the target is for the operation date of the first unit is 2023, and
the second unit in 2024."

In terms of ASEAN, Vietnam is the group's lead contender, but the path to
nuclear in the communist republic is not without its speed humps. "Among
ASEAN member-states, we've seen Vietnam has decided to proceed with 4.10
projects but these are still works in progress because they have not inked
the construction agreement. If I am not mistaken, the Vietnamese have pushed
back their COD to 2027 or so. So I remain with the belief that the first
country in the region to launch a plant will be our neighbour Bangladesh. Of
course, India and Pakistan have their own nuclear power production and Iran
too, although its only a fraction of total electricity generation. Next year
we think that UAE will also have its first plant running."

Malaysia's own aspirations

While regional co-operation is bound to continue to the benefit of all
nuclear newcomers in Asia, Malaysia (or more precisely the Malaysian
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water) has just taken the lead in
chairing the development of a ASEAN nuclear energy cooperation body. "For
our part," says Zamzam, "We have already decided to proceed with what we
call the IAEA Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review Mission, due for
roll-out later this year." Under this framework the International Atomic
Energy Agency is set to provide some highly detailed analysis and follow-on
advice based on the moved that have been made in ASEAN nuclear over the last
five years. "We are hoping that the IAEA will provide us with counsel for
proceeding with the programme, what we have done correctly, what we need to
improve on, and so on."

These are all positive and seemingly timely moves - many ASEAN jurisdictions
are sending overtures that they are "ready", nonetheless, Fukushima, or more
accurately, the threat of another Fukushima on less nuclear-mature
Equatorial shores, continues to raise its ugly head. Malaysia has announced
some five years ago, that it would launch its first unit COD in 2021,
however, according to Zamzam, the reality is that "this is no longer
possible."

The Malaysian Government is now targeting at least 2030, and with less than
15 years remaining before this extended deadline, one of the fundamental
steps is to table a new nuclear economy energy Bill in Parliament, a vital
part, according to Zamzam, of the national 11-measure plan. "Once this is
tabled in Parliament, then we will proceed with the establishment of an
independent mediator and effective authority." Government is merely one
stakeholder. NEPIO plans to quickly engage all stakeholders: professional
groups, the general public, and even the schoolchildren, due to the fact
that by 2030, top young scholars will form the human capital pool necessary
for the newborn industry.

While there is no doubt that Malaysia is committed, a lot must occur before
the nation's first operational NPP opens its doors. Building the human
capital pool and jumping through the legislative rings-of-fire aside, there
is much else to consider, with public opinion coming on board being a major
consideration. Zamzam intends to use the period up until 2020 to engage and
win-over a typically suspicious public, but unlike Bangladesh, Malaysia is
also yet to select a site - its western neighbour having done so over 50
years ago, "and in the case of Turkey, I believe they had their site
identified around 1980," he adds. "Malaysia doesn't have a site at the
moment, although we have some idea where the site could be."

There are unique loopholes created by Malaysia's federal system in that
there is a power penultimate layer of stakeholder in terms of state
government, that must be independently included and consulted - and may
issue an independent veto - in irrespective of desire, policy or even
pressure from KL. "Then of course we have to win over the local people
around the site." It seems there is much confronting Zamzam and his team of
senior nuclear policy-makers and bureaucrats, however with a GDPPC of
US$26,000.00 Malaysia is truly industrialising at a rate of knots, pressure
to go nuclear out of necessity may bulldoze the roadblocks.

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Ref:
http://asian-power.com/ipp/in-focus/malaysias-first-nuclear-unit-in-2021-no-
longer-possible-dr-mohd-zamzam-jaafar

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John Diecker
APT Consulting Group Co., Ltd.

www.aptthailand.com